Rising GDP figures may be welcome, but they’re no reason yet to celebrate Labour, writes shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith

Often in politics, people look to you to be excessively partisan. As someone who came to politics only after a career in business, that isn’t my style. I welcome the positives from this week’s GDP figures whilst cautioning ministers trying to take a celebratory lap from a decidedly mixed picture.

First, let’s consider what this week’s figures show: 0.7 per cent growth in Q3 of 2026, up from 0.5 per cent in Q2. Compared to last year, that’s GDP 1.9 per cent higher. This is by no means a boom, nor is it far off from expectations, but in the context of global shocks and rising inflation, it is still welcome. The devil is, as ever, in the details which show a deeply uneven picture across the economy.

The ONS data shows that big growth drivers have been tech and business services, including IT and computer equipment. These benefit from the global AI boom and Britain’s services sector is well placed to catch it, especially because our position outside the EU has kept us safe from overzealous AI regulation. The key then, is to let this winner run.

Last week, the Bank of England estimated that AI-related activity accounts for a staggering fifth of all growth since the start of the year. An EU reset that jeopardises that growth by adopting Brussels regulations could be enormously damaging.  

The worrying trends behind the figures

Now for the less good news: behind the headline figures there lies the continuation of some worrying trends.  

The resolutely domestic construction sector shrank by 0.7 per cent in Q3, under a government that promised to get Britain building. In fact, construction sector indices have been in negative territory ever since Labour took office. The Office for Budget Responsibility now expects 190,000 fewer new builds than it forecast as recently as March. It’s a big sector of the economy and one at the sharp end of government policy. The verdict isn’t good.

The macroeconomic picture also shows up an oddity. Unpicking the public and private sector components of GDP, it becomes clear that the former has soared while the latter has flagged. Public sector spending and investment have grown 20 per cent since 2019, while the same components in the private sector have only grown 3.2 per cent. This is not a wholly new problem, but it is getting worse not better. It is no more sustainable than a hungry snake eating its own tail.

Brits are still being squeezed

Finally, in the real world, families are bracing for harder months ahead, with expensive energy bills, inflation remaining high and rising interest rates. The households and businesses that have kept this economy moving are about to be squeezed even further, which is why today is no moment for a victory lap.

The tangible help the economy urgently needs is to cut energy costs by getting Britain drilling again and removing the tangled web of levies and obligations that have held back industry and raised costs for families. Second, lift the ongoing burden on employers from Labour’s ‘back to the 1970s’ (Un)Employment Act alongside adopting the Conservative policy halving the jobs tax for young people. And to help construction, speed up planning and cut gold plated regulations to get Britain building again.

This week’s growth figures remain a testament to the strength and resilience of British businesses. Such growth as there is has come despite, not because of, the government. Just imagine what those businesses could do with a government properly on their side.

Andrew Griffith is shadow chancellor